This set of datasets contains a land use change scenario (2050) for Scotland within the scope of a SSP1 - Low emissions scenario (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways). For achieving a low-emission scenario, simulated land use change targeted woodland expansion (including silvo-arable and silvo-pastoral) and decreased grazing intensity, both land use changes also aimed at benefitting four aspects of ecosystem services: carbon storage through tree planting, emission reduction through deintensification, biodiversity enhancement through tree planting, and pollination to support food production.
The baseline dataset is based on the Land Cover Map 2019 (Morton et al, 2020) aggregated at 100m resolution. Grazing intensity was added to it by using estimations of stocking rates from IACS (Wardell-Johnson, 2022), and grazing conservation thresholds (Chapman, 2007; FAS, 2021). From the baseline dataset, the land use scenario map was created using the SLM-OptionsTool, a land use change tool for Ecosystem Services based on the LandSFACTS model (Castellazzi et al, 2010). The attached land use scenario map for 2050 is not an optimised result, but it is only one possibility that meets all the constraints stipulated for the scenario.
Contributions to the baseline dataset (SSP1LEonLCM19_2019.tif) :
- 100% of 100m cells: Land Cover Map 2019 (Morton et al, 2020)
- 66.84% of 100m cells: the LCM 2019 was subdivided by grazing intensity using estimations of stocking rates from IACS (Wardell-Johnson, 2022), and grazing conservation thresholds (Chapman, 2007; FAS, 2021). This impacts the grasslands, heathers, bogs and arable classes.
- Estimated overall contributions: 90% UKCEH, 10% JHI.
Contributions to the scenario dataset (SSP1LEonLCM19_2050.tif) :
- cf. contribution to the baseline (above)
- 14% of 100m cells: modelled land use change
- Estimated overall contributions: 85% UKCEH, 15% JHI.
For a detailed description of the scenario refer to the following web storymap : https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/c3d3feff85f14460b6c973127089d6f9.
This analysis was conducted as part of the Land use Transformations (https://landusetransformations.hutton.ac.uk/) project (JHI-C3-1) in the Scottish Government funded Strategic Research Programme 2022-27.
Full list of authors: Castellazzi, M., Gimona, A., Wardell-Johnson, D., Miller, D., Rivington, M., Matthews, K.
